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P.G.S. and J.G.G. acknowledge financial support from the Departamento de Industria e Innovacion del Gobierno de Aragon y Fondo Social Europeo (FENOL group grant E36-23R) and from Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovacion through project PID2020-113582GB-I00/AEI/10.13039/501100011033. P.G.S. acknowledges financial support from the European Union-NextGenerationEU and Servicio Publico de Empleo Estatal through Programa Investigo 024-67. D.S.P. acknowledges financial support through grants JDC2022-048339-I and PID2021-128005NB-C21 funded by the European Union "NextGenerationEU"/PRTR" and MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033. J.A.R.-V. and R.G.H. acknowledge financial support from Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Centro de Excelencia en Computacion Cientifica, through project HERMES 52625.

Analysis of institutional authors

Soriano-Panos, DavidCorresponding Author

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November 12, 2024
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Quantum-Like Approaches Unveil the Intrinsic Limits of Predictability in Compartmental Models

Publicated to:Entropy. 26 (10): 888- - 2024-10-01 26(10), DOI: 10.3390/e26100888

Authors: Rojas-Venegas, Jose Alejandro; Gallarta-Saenz, Pablo; Hurtado, Rafael G; Gomez-Gardenes, Jesus; Soriano-Panos, David

Affiliations

Dept Adm Nacl Estadist DANE, Bogota 111321, Colombia - Author
Univ Nacl Colombia, Fac Ciencias, Dept Fis, Bogota 111321, Colombia - Author
Univ Rovira & Virgili, Dept Engn Informat & Matemat, Tarragona 43007, Spain - Author
Univ Zaragoza, Dept Fis Mat Condensada, Zaragoza 50009, Spain - Author
Univ Zaragoza, GOTHAM Lab, Inst Biocomp & Sist Complejos BIFI, Zaragoza 50018, Spain - Author
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Abstract

Obtaining accurate forecasts for the evolution of epidemic outbreaks from deterministic compartmental models represents a major theoretical challenge. Recently, it has been shown that these models typically exhibit trajectory degeneracy, as different sets of epidemiological parameters yield comparable predictions at early stages of the outbreak but disparate future epidemic scenarios. In this study, we use the Doi-Peliti approach and extend the classical deterministic compartmental models to a quantum-like formalism to explore whether the uncertainty of epidemic forecasts is also shaped by the stochastic nature of epidemic processes. This approach allows us to obtain a probabilistic ensemble of trajectories, revealing that epidemic uncertainty is not uniform across time, being maximal around the epidemic peak and vanishing at both early and very late stages of the outbreak. Therefore, our results show that, independently of the models' complexity, the stochasticity of contagion and recovery processes poses a natural constraint for the uncertainty of epidemic forecasts.

Keywords

Compartmental modelsDoi-peliti formalisDoi–peliti formalismEpidemic dynamics

Quality index

Bibliometric impact. Analysis of the contribution and dissemination channel

The work has been published in the journal Entropy due to its progression and the good impact it has achieved in recent years, according to the agency WoS (JCR), it has become a reference in its field. In the year of publication of the work, 2024 there are still no calculated indicators, but in 2023, it was in position 52/114, thus managing to position itself as a Q2 (Segundo Cuartil), in the category Physics, Multidisciplinary. Notably, the journal is positioned en el Cuartil Q2 para la agencia Scopus (SJR) en la categoría Physics and Astronomy (Miscellaneous).

Impact and social visibility

From the perspective of influence or social adoption, and based on metrics associated with mentions and interactions provided by agencies specializing in calculating the so-called "Alternative or Social Metrics," we can highlight as of 2025-08-07:

  • The use, from an academic perspective evidenced by the Altmetric agency indicator referring to aggregations made by the personal bibliographic manager Mendeley, gives us a total of: 5.
  • The use of this contribution in bookmarks, code forks, additions to favorite lists for recurrent reading, as well as general views, indicates that someone is using the publication as a basis for their current work. This may be a notable indicator of future more formal and academic citations. This claim is supported by the result of the "Capture" indicator, which yields a total of: 3 (PlumX).

With a more dissemination-oriented intent and targeting more general audiences, we can observe other more global scores such as:

  • The Total Score from Altmetric: 9.85.
  • The number of mentions on the social network X (formerly Twitter): 12 (Altmetric).

It is essential to present evidence supporting full alignment with institutional principles and guidelines on Open Science and the Conservation and Dissemination of Intellectual Heritage. A clear example of this is:

  • The work has been submitted to a journal whose editorial policy allows open Open Access publication.
  • Assignment of a Handle/URN as an identifier within the deposit in the Institutional Repository: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11797/imarina9390027

Leadership analysis of institutional authors

This work has been carried out with international collaboration, specifically with researchers from: Colombia.

There is a significant leadership presence as some of the institution’s authors appear as the first or last signer, detailed as follows: Last Author (Soriano Paños, David).

the author responsible for correspondence tasks has been Soriano Paños, David.